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Captain Ahab doesn’t have anything on the Texans and the Divisional round. 6 games. 6 losses. Two against these New England Patriots. 34-16 in 2016 with Brock Osweiler at the helm. 34-22 in 2012 with a hobbled Matt Schaub. Houston just dismantled the Steelers to snap their road playoff curse, riding their league-best defense that’s allowed 17.4 points per game and is chock-full of Pro Bowlers and All Pros. They started 0-3. They’ve won ten straight. None of that matters if they fail in the Divisional Round (again).
New England, meanwhile, is back where they belong. Maybe there are some middle schoolers in Foxborough who don’t remember the dynasty, but everyone else remembers 15 Divisional Round appearances in 20 years under Brady and Belichick. That era ended. Then Mike Vrabel showed up, Drake Maye took a leap, and suddenly the Patriots are the 2-seed with an MVP candidate under center. The Death Star has some new faces at the helm.
Ten straight wins means nothing if number eleven doesn’t come in the Divisional Round. It never has for Houston. Maybe it’s time.
The Trenches
The Texans have a top 5 pass rush in football. They just proved it by sacking Aaron Rodgers 4 times and hitting him 12 times. That Steelers team was supposedly one of the best O-lines in the league. The Patriots are not that.
The Patriots O-line is a Jekyll and Hyde situation when it comes to run and pass blocking. Morgan Moses leads the way at right tackle (79% RBWR, 7th at the position), and the team ranks 12th overall (72% RBWR). When they want to move bodies, they can. Pass protection is more complicated. Mike Onwenu grades out individually (95% PBWR, 20th among interior linemen) and rookie Will Campbell has been better than advertised at left tackle (5.8% pressure rate allowed). But the team sits 13th in PBWR (64%) and 11th in composite rating, good but not great. Add in Drake Maye’s high TTT (3.12 sec) and it’s a vicious cycle where extending plays just exposes the cracks.
The Texans D-line is strong. Maybe a mild understatement, given their two All-Pros leading the charge: Will Anderson Jr. (15 sacks, 3rd in NFL) and Danielle Hunter (12 sacks, 8th). Pass, run, it doesn’t matter. The Texans D-line eats it up. Anderson (23% PRWR, 4th among edge rushers) and Hunter (14%, 19th) are both top 20 in pass rush win rate. Togiai leads all DTs in run stop win rate (46%). Anderson ranks 8th among edge defenders (28%). Add in Sheldon Rankins, who’s skilled and strong enough to toss an offensive lineman back with one hand and take a fumble to the house? It spells DISASTER for the Patriots in Foxborough (Steiner math, so hot right now).
On the other side, it’s less a clash of titans and more a clash of stoppable force vs. movable object.
Here the Texans offensive line ranks 30th in pass block win rate (56%) and dead last in run block win rate (68%, 32nd). Not good. Those stats are a little misleading though. By that same composite metric they’re middle of the pack (20th). ESPN, the ppl behind PBWR and RBWR, just happens to REALLY hate them. The actual pressure rate allowed (35.2%) and no-blitz pressure rate (31.3%) are both mid-pack. CJ Stroud’s quick trigger (2.8 sec TTT, compared to Maye’s 3.12) and low Pressure-To-Sack Rate (13.4%, 10th) show how even when pressure arrives, it doesn’t always convert. Where the line actually struggles is the run game: 19.3% stuff rate, 6th worst in the league.
The Patriots D-line is more well-rounded than the previous opponent was, rating 18th (35%) in pass rush win rate and 10th (31%) in run stop win rate. They’re not big on sacks, only 18th in the league (2.3 per game), but Christian Barmore provides interior disruption (10% PRWR, 7th among DTs) while Harold Landry III (8.5 sacks) and K’Lavon Chaisson (7.5 sacks) work as the bookend threats (TEMU WAJ/Hunter). The Texans will need to handle pressure from everywhere.
The run game will be a grind (no 5.3 ypc here unlike the Steelers game), but the Texans have a better chance of keeping CJ upright, and CJ with time is a dangerous man indeed. Call this matchup a WASH.
The Quarterbacks
CJ Stroud was two different quarterbacks on Monday night. One fumbled “five” (five in quotation marks because the center misnapped twice, and the NFL counts bad snaps against the QB) times. The other converted 7/12 3rd downs, averaging 12.7 yards an attempt and .77 EPA/pass. Rex Grossman and Tom Brady sharing the same jersey.
His regular season followed the same pattern. Early struggles (0-3, averaging 199.7 ypg and .66 TDs/game) gave way to a 6-0 stretch as a starter: 244.5 ypg, 1.6 TDs/game, .11 EPA/play (10th in the NFL, min. 100 plays). The Texans also went 3-0 while he was out with a concussion, but the offense looked noticeably worse without him.
While CJ has been inconsistent, Maye’s 2025 has been elite. Second-team All-Pro, MVP conversation, the whole shebang. Josh McDaniels turned a promising rookie into a 31 TD/8 INT passer who’s also a rushing threat (450 yards, 4 TDs). He leads the league in EPA/play (.26) and QBR (77.3) with a 4.4-point gap over second place. He’s that guy this season.
Be that as it may(e), his game against the Chargers made him look mortal. 17/29, 1 TD, 1 interception, 5 sacks and 2 fumbles (1 lost) with 33 rushing yards isn’t great. Ultimately, the Chargers offense was even worse. The Texans’ defense is better than the Chargers’. Points will be at a premium this game, and the margins are slimmer than the Wildcard.
The key to beating Maye is pressure and containment. Original? No, but it’s apt. His QBR when clean is 128 (top among playoff QBs). Under pressure? It drops to 65.7. He also ranks fourth in scramble rate, at 10.5%. Getting home and keeping him in the pocket without letting him escape and pick up positive yards will be the easiest way for the Texans to kill Patriots drives. In his regular season losses (Raiders, Steelers, Bills) or even the Chargers win where he looked less impressive, the formula has been the same: make it the Drake Maye show. Force him to play hero ball (Bills game where Buffalo came back from a deficit, got 3 sacks and a pick) or constantly harry him (Steelers with 5 sacks, 1 FF, and 1 interception). That’s the blueprint.
There’s also the matter of the slow trigger. Maye’s 3.12-second time-to-throw ranks sixth-slowest among qualified QBs. When he has time, he’s elite. When he doesn’t, his hero-ball instinct (19 turnovers as a rookie, 16 this year) creeps back in. The Wild Card was a case study, INT that set up a Chargers goal-line stand, red zone fumble in the third quarter, defense bailing him out both times. Anderson and Hunter live for QBs who hold the ball. Lassiter, Bullock, Stingley, and Pitre live for the bad throws that follow. They won’t need many chances.
For Stroud, the name of the game is mistake-free football. In the regular season, that’s what happened (8 picks, 2 fumbles). A repeat of the Steelers game (1 pick, 5 fumbles, 2 lost) gives Drake Maye more chances to test the Texans defense. They’ll shut down most of what he does, but betting on the defense to bail out sloppy play back-to-back games is a bad gamble.
Stroud is the more experienced QB in the playoffs (crazy for a 24-year-old), going into his sixth playoff game averaging 245.2 ypg and 1 td a game). This is Maye’s second. But that doesn’t matter when the Texans haven’t made it past the Divisional round before. It’s a young, ascending QB vs. a young, inconsistent QB. Give me the QB on Tom Brady’s team, not just cosplaying like him. EDGE: MAYE.
The Playmakers
The Texans’ secondary is special. Derek Stingley was named to his second straight 1st All Pro Team at cornerback. The other 3 (Bullock, Lassiter, and Pitre) aren’t far behind (all three were Pro Bowl alternates, all received All Pro votes). The Texans don’t allow completions. Stingley (43.3%), Bullock (50.8%), Lassiter (57.7%). Good luck finding someone open. Stingley gives up a measly 54.0 QB rating locking down one side of the field. And when you do throw? Lassiter has 4 interceptions (8th) and 17 passes defended (6th) on the year and Bullock has 4 interceptions (8th). Jalen Pitre is 2nd amongst safeties by PFF and has delivered some of the hardest hits of the year. Add in Pro Bowl linebacker Al-Shaair patrolling the middle (103 tackles, 2 interceptions), and it’s overwhelming. A “swarm” if you will. Need proof? Look no further than the Wild Card game against the Steelers, where they smothered them to the tune of 112 passing yards and a pick-6 (courtesy of Bullock). “God is the greatest. The Texans’ defense is maybe second.” - Jalen Pitre. At this rate, God might have to settle for second.
The New England weapons are almost disappointing by comparison (still better than whatever the Steelers rolled out). Stefon Diggs leads the pack with 1013 receiving yards (4 TDs) with TE Hunter Henry being next up with 768 (7 TDs). They round out the rotation with a gaggle of receivers around 500 yards: Kayshon Boutte with 551 (6 TDs), Mack Hollins with 550 (2 TDs) and Demario Douglas with 447 (3 TDs). Add in a two-headed backfield with TreVeyon Henderson averaging 5.1 ypc totaling 911 yards and Rhamondre Stevenson with 603 yards and a 4.6 ypc, and it’s death by a thousand cuts. No one individually is ruining the defense’s night, but combined? The Chargers have a worse secondary than Houston and still held the Patriots to 16 points and one offensive touchdown. The Steelers have worse weapons than New England and got smothered for 175 total yards. The Patriots offense is real (first in EPA/play, sixth in DVOA). So is Houston’s defense. Strength on strength. After both Wild Card games, give me the defense. Texans CLEAR.
Flip the sides, and the Texans aren’t looking as rosy. Nico Collins is in concussion protocol, leaving the Texans trying to replace him in aggregate with a mishmash of wideouts. Jayden Higgins, their talented rookie out of Iowa State (525 yards, 6 TDs) is next up as the Texans X-receiver, with Dalton Schultz (777 yards, 3 TDs), Xavier Hutchinson (428 yards, 3 TDs) and Christian Kirk (only 239 yards, 1 TD BOO but 144 yards, 1 TD in the postseason YAY) all getting used to some degree. In the backfield, they have the “we have a two-headed backfield at home” with Woody Marks (703 yards, 2 TDs) and Nick Chubb (506 yards, 3 TDs) taking carries in a roughly 1.5-1 split.
The Patriots’ secondary isn’t a pushover. Christian Gonzalez earned a Pro Bowl nod and All-Pro votes at corner, allowing just a 53.6% completion rate and 79.9 passer rating on 84 targets. Not as good as Stingley, but he’s a bonafide CB1. Safety Jaylinn Hawkins is having a career year (4 INTs, 71.2 passer rating allowed). Robert Spillane patrols the middle the way Al-Shaair does for Houston (97 tackles, 2 INTs). It’s not all sunshine and roses though (things Bostonians haven’t seen), with strong safety Craig Woodson (66.7% completion percentage, 7 TDs, and 133.9 passer rating) and corner Marcus Jones (67.9% completion percentage, 7 TDs, 102.2 passer rating), best described as chopped. Add in a run defense that’s cratered since Week 10 (31st in success rate, 29th in rush EPA after ranking 8th and 3rd respectively through nine games), and it’s a middling group (11th by EPA, 25th by defensive DVOA). No Texans, but who can blame them.
With Nico Collins, easy Texans. Without? WASH. I’m not projecting a rookie WR1 in the playoffs, and betting on Kirk’s Wild Card explosion to repeat seems foolish. The Texans’ rushing attack popped against Pittsburgh (Marks’ first 100-yard game, 5.9 ypc) but their season averages (3.6 ypc for Marks and 4.1 ypc for Chubb) suggest outlier, not breakout.
The Third Team: Special Teams Faceoff
Always there in our hearts, special teams. For the Patriots, that means their punt returner Marcus Jones. Two TDs on 21 attempts shows how electric Jones is, and a long of 94 yards shows how dangerous he is in open space. Tommy Townsend and the punt-coverage unit (16th in net avg. at 41.6 yards, 3rd in punts inside the 20 with 30) boom punts but a 45.8% return rate gives Jones plenty of opportunities. Houston’s coverage unit will need to be perfect.
On the Texans side, Ka’imi Fairbairn has been automatic. His 44/48 on field goals tied the NFL’s single-season make record, and he’s 35/35 from under 50. In a game where points figure to be scarce, having a kicker who doesn’t miss from inside 50 is a cheat code. The Patriots’ Andres Borregales is serviceable (27/32, 84.4%) but nothing special.
With the other returners also being relative non-factors (Texans’ kick returner Tremon Smith averaging 24.16 yards per return, Patriots kick returner TreVeyon Henderson averaging 23.22 yards per return, and Texans kick/punt returner Jaylin Noel averaging 27.55 yards per return), it comes down to Jones vs Fairbairn for special teams impact. Jones holds the NFL’s all-time record for punt return average (14.3 yards). In a game that could come down to a field goal, one slip in coverage is the margin. Fairbairn has ice in his veins and makes a bigger impact on the game (kicks extra points, kickoffs, field goals, makes a mean barbecue on the sideline, real team player). EDGE: TEXANS
Sideline Battle
When the Titans fired Mike Vrabel as a head coach, plenty of haters panned the move. And honestly? Great call by the haters. In his first season coaching the Patriots, he has them with a 14-3 record and 2nd in the AFC. Comparing that to what the Patriots were the previous season, 4-13 and we can see the impact he’s had on the organization (sorry Jerrod Mayo, the real prodigal son has returned). Plenty of regular season success, but more of a mixed bag in the playoffs. Since his AFC championship run with the Titans, Vrabel has gone one-and-done in the playoffs twice with top-two seeded teams. Not great.
Demeco Ryans is also a prodigal son (DROY for the Texans in 2006) and is rapidly becoming the greatest coach in Texans history. 32-19 in three seasons, 3-2 in playoffs. Three winning seasons in a row to start his coaching career (two division titles, and the third while not division title winning is his best record so far). Two chosen coaches facing off, the NFL scriptwriters are cooking with this one.
But neither of them calls plays. This matchup comes down to the coordinators.
Josh McDaniels may be a panned head coach, but he may be the best OC in the game. He runs antithetical to the Shanahan school of thought (taking the thinking away from the QB) as running a modified Erhardt-Perkins system allows for the QB to have a lot of control over the offense. McDaniels wants Drake Maye to read safeties pre-snap, adjust protections at the line, and know which concepts attack which coverages before the ball is even snapped. Something’s working. The Patriots rank first in EPA/pass (.35) out of 11 personnel, their most-used grouping at 48.95% of snaps. Their 12 personnel package (19.35% usage) sits sixth in EPA/pass (.33), where McDaniels marries his dynasty-era staples (gap runs, play-action boots, the infamous “Charles Barkley” concept) with wrinkles tailored to a dual-threat quarterback.
Nick Caley is a lesser Josh McDaniels. An offshoot of both the McVay and Daniels tree (coached for the Rams for 2 years, Patriots for 6), he also runs that modified Erhardt-Perkins. It’s been a mixed bag, the Texans move the ball well between the 20’s (buoyed by heavy 11 personnel usage EPA ranking 14th), but have been brutal in the redzone this year (43.59% TD conversion, 31st in NFL). The scheme issues haven’t fully resolved. When the field shrinks, Caley’s offense stalls because there are no hot routes, no answers for pressure, and the running backs (Marks, Chubb) rank 44th and 55th in redzone EPA/rush. There have been flashes of an offensive killer for the Texans, Woody Marks was 27th in the NFL with 18 explosive runs, the Texans were 13th in PPG (23.8), and even in the redzone the Texans’ beloved 11 personnel had them 12th in the NFL in redzone EPA. The inconsistency is just brutal.
With that in mind, it doesn’t matter that Burke’s (Texans’ DC calling 2nd best defense by DVOA, and leading the league with -.13 EPA/play …read morehere) defense is the best unit on either sideline.
Even though they took it up a notch against the Steelers, only giving up 175 total yards, 2 TOs forced, and 4 sacks, I have no faith in Nick Caley to pull two rabbits out of a hat in a row. EDGE: PATRIOTS
I have the matchups as 2-2-2, even across the board. But that’s a lot of writing to simply call it a close game. The Patriots have faced a historically easy schedule this year, while the Texans have faced one of the hardest schedules of the year. Can’t drag the Patriots for handling business against those easy teams, but they looked thoroughly unimpressive putting up 16 points against the Chargers in the Wildcard and as the saying goes, iron sharpens iron. It’s time to kill the beast, give me the TEXANS breaking the franchise’s divisional curse and making their first ever AFC Championship Game (please please please).
