The Texans are 11-5. They started 0-3, then won eight straight to become the hottest team in the AFC. Week 18 determines their seeding, but the Wild Card matchup is set (assuming Houston and Jacksonville win in Week 18): Pittsburgh or Baltimore. Real questions remain. Which version shows up? The unstoppable defense that carried them for two months, or the inconsistent offense that can’t punch it in from the one? Will the real Texans please stand up?

DeMeco and Burke’s Swarming Texans Defense

“God is the greatest. The Texans’ defense is maybe second.” - Jalen Pitre. That’s a bar. He’s also not far off. Second in combined DVOA (1st in Passing DVOA, 3rd in Rushing DVOA), first in EPA/Play and Total EPA. The counting stats tell the same story, league-leading 16.56 ppg and 272.44 ypg allowed. The Swarm isn’t just good. It’s bordering on historically great.

The defense starts with its front seven, anchored by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Both are having All-Pro caliber seasons. Anderson has 12 sacks (8th) and 19 TFL (5th) with a 24% pass rush win rate (2nd in the NFL). Hunter has 14 sacks (3rd) and 14 TFL (8th) with a 14% pass rush win rate (15th). They’re among the best edge rushers in football, and as a duo, terrifying for opposing quarterbacks.

If a QB manages to escape the front seven and get a throw off, it enters the secondary. Derek Stingley Jr., Calen Bullock, Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre are all Pro Bowlers this year, Stingley as a starter, the other three as alternates. Stingley may be the best cover corner in the game, giving up a measly 43.5% completion percentage and 49.2 QB rating. Lassiter has 4 interceptions (6th) and 17 passes defended (4th) on the year as Houston’s ballhawk, while allowing a 58.4% completion percentage of his own. Bullock has 4 interceptions (6th) and gives up a 51.7% completion percentage. Jalen Pitre is 2nd amongst safeties by PFF and has delivered some of the hardest hits of the year. Add in Pro Bowl linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair patrolling the middle, and nowhere is safe. It’s a pick your poison adventure for opposing QBs and offensive coordinators.

The individual talent is elite, but the scheme maximizes it. Burke runs a Cover 1 and Cover 3 heavy system, keeping a safety in the middle of the field and disguising pre-snap looks. It forces quarterbacks to make tight-window throws into a secondary that doesn’t give them up. Stingley and Lassiter can play aggressive man coverage knowing they have help over the top. Pitre and Bullock can jump routes because the shell protects them from getting burned deep.

DeMeco has taken a step back to allow Burke playcalling duties, and clearly something’s working. The defense’s DVOA has jumped from 3rd to 2nd year-over-year, showing how the system is sustainable, it’s not dependent on DeMeco making every call. The only question? Burke’s playoff playcalling chops. The Steelers or Ravens are first. If the Texans advance, Liam Coen’s Jags could be waiting in the divisional round. Either way, it’s a different battle than eating Pete Carroll’s Raiders on a typical Sunday afternoon. The talent and scheme are there, but Burke’s playoff gauntlet starts now.

Offense Goes Where CJ Goes

Defense is only half the battle (sorry, special teams). The real question is whether CJ Stroud can deliver in January. It’s been a rocky year for the Texans offense, ranked 21st by offensive DVOA (15th by Passing, 29th by Rushing). Nick Caley has looked overmatched as a playcaller. That’s not on CJ though.

CJ Stroud is 11th in QBR (61.9), 11th in EPA/Play, and 12th in Total EPA. Even after missing three games to a concussion, he’s on pace for career highs in completion percentage and QBR with a career-low sack percentage. It’s not the high-octane 2023 offense, but CJ is minimizing mistakes and moving the ball enough to let the defense win games.

The big reason for his success is his improvement under pressure. In 2024, when pressured he was 23rd in the NFL with -.37 EPA/Play and a 19.70% sack rate (21st). In 2025 that’s jumped to -.15 EPA/play (9th) and a 14.37% sack rate (10th). Pressure is inevitable in the NFL. CJ’s improvements mean the Texans extend drives at a higher rate and avoid backbreaking sacks or picks. That lets the defense grind opponents down.

The weapons aren’t the problem. Nico Collins is a Pro Bowler with his third straight 1,000-yard season. Dalton Schultz is a reliable second target at tight end. Rookie Jayden Higgins has shown flashes. The running backs (Woody Marks, Jawhar Jordan, Nick Chubb) have been inconsistent but move the chains. The talent is there.

The scheme is what’s holding them back. When the defense brings pressure, there are no hot routes. Everything is longer developing, so CJ either is forced to take the sack (or thankfully, throws it away) or throws into tight coverage. The running game is predictable. Too many runs up the middle relying on the offensive line to create gaps, which they can’t do consistently. The passing routes require receivers to win their one-on-one matchups because Caley doesn’t reliably scheme people open. Against elite defenses that can cover and pressure simultaneously, the offense stalls.

Then there’s the red zone problem. When the field shrinks and defenses can load the box without worrying about getting beat deep, Caley’s scheme has no answers. The numbers back this up: Woody Marks ranks 48th out of 58 running backs in red zone EPA/Rush (-0.20), Nick Chubb ranks 53rd (-0.33). Against Denver in Week 9, the Texans had four trips inside the 20 and came away with just one touchdown. The offense moved between the 20s all game but stalled when points mattered most. CJ’s pressure improvements buy him time to find his talented receivers in open field, but in tight quarters where plays need to develop fast? The offense breaks down.

The Playoff Path

Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson has a back contusion. If the Ravens make the playoffs, he’ll be limited. If he doesn’t play? Well, they’ll have flashbacks to Week 6 when the Texans dominated them 44-10, holding Derrick Henry to 33 yards and forcing the Ravens into three turnovers. CJ just needs to control the clock and force Baltimore into obvious passing situations. Tyler Huntley may have a Pro Bowl (how the Pro Bowl has fallen) to his name, but he’s not a scary QB to the secondary quartet of the Texans. Henry can’t carry them one-dimensional against this defense.

(Eliminated in loser goes home Week 18 game w/ Steelers)

Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers is 42 years old in his 21st season. DK Metcalf (229lbs) is built like a Greek god and is Pittsburgh’s only legitimate downfield threat, but he plays scared. The Steelers lean on quick passes to Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren out of the backfield. Burke’s Cover 1/Cover 3 scheme is built to take that away. Shade help over Metcalf, stop any check-downs/wheel routes, and Rodgers has nowhere to go (free lunch for Hunter and WAJ). On offense, it’s a time of possession game with the backs taking the lead. Grind the defense down, and then have CJ spread the ball out to the wide receivers to get their playoff legs under them. Simple.

Denver Broncos: The Broncos knocked CJ out with a concussion earlier this year and still only beat the Texans’ backup 18-15. Bo Nix has improved stats wise (3,790 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs), but has shrank against the leagues toughest defenses (153 yards against the Chargers, 173 yards against the Texans, 242 against the Eagles). Denver leads the NFL in drops (36), understandable with their WR1 and 2 of Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin. RJ Harvey may be a good pass catching back, but with only 3.9 YPC, he won’t help make the Broncos a dual-threat offense for the Texans defense. Anderson and Hunter will harass Nix into tight windows. With a healthy CJ managing the game and targeting the receivers not guarded by PS2, the Texans win.

Jacksonville Jaguars: This is where it ends. That Broncos team that’ll hang tough with the Texans? Trevor Lawrence just torched them 34-20 with 4 touchdowns. Liam Coen schemes receivers open with play-action and screens that Caley can’t match. Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Jakobi Meyers give Lawrence weapons everywhere. The Texans’ defense can play ball, and the 36-29 Week 10 win shows the offense can too. That Texans offense isn’t a regular sight, though. And the Jaguars are hotter than ever. It’ll be tight, divisional games are full of hate. But when Houston needs 30+ points and can’t punch it in from the red zone? Lawrence and Coen will score 30. Houston needs to match it. They can’t. The season ends in the AFC Championship.

The Bottom Line

The Texans have never won a divisional round game. Ever. DeMeco is 0-2 in the divisional round as their head coach. That history matters, but this team is different. The defense is legitimately elite, historically dominant by every metric. The offense is good enough to let the defense win games. That formula works in the regular season. The playoffs are different.

The defense is good enough to beat anyone. The offense isn’t. That’s the formula. It works until it doesn’t. Against Pittsburgh or Baltimore? It works. Against Denver? It works. Against Liam Coen’s Jags? It doesn’t.

The season ends one win short. The defense drags them further than anyone expected. The offense will fall flat on its face. That’s the bottom line.