The Astros finally missed the playoffs. For non-fans, I’m sure they’ve already thrown the parade. For fans, it makes you ask: what’s next? Typically, you’d console yourself with a look at the farm system, imagining ranked prospects and a future back in the spotlight. Unfortunately, for the fifth straight year, the Astros have a bottom five ranked system. A far cry from when it produced Alex Bregman, George Springer, and Carlos Correa.
Those players were the bedrock of seven straight ALCS appearances and two World Series titles. A hard act to follow, but not impossible, especially if the prospects in this series end up contributing like those OGs did.
MLB Ready
Cam Smith
Smith is a stud. No two ways about it. He ripped through Single-A to Double-A as a Chicago Cub, putting up a phenomenal .313/.396/.609 slashline, 181 wRC+ before joining the Astros in the Kyle Tucker trade. We can quibble about a disappointing finish to his first MLB season, where his overall 90 wRC+ disguises a putrid 41 wRC+ after the All-Star Break, but you can’t name many players that could pick up a new position (RF) and be a Gold Glove Finalist in the majors at only 22! What I want to see in 2026? A cut down strikeout rate (27.8% as a rookie) and optimized launch angle. His 8.9-degree average left serious power on the table, and his 9.6% HR/FB rate pales in comparison to the 21.9% he posted tearing through the Cubs’ system. With elite bat speed and a pull-oriented approach, better elevation could unlock the 20+ home run threat Houston thought they were getting.
Zach Cole
In the words of Cris Collinsworth, “now here’s a guy” who can hit for some power! Drafted out of Ball State in 2022, Cole has steadily improved at every level till exploding at Triple-A and in the majors this past season. Slashing .255/.327/.553 with a 142 wRC+ in his first cup of coffee, the rookie never looked overmatched. Before anointing him, I think there are still valid concerns: his strikeout rate hit 35.1% at Triple-A and was an eye-watering 38.5% in the majors. When he chases out of the zone, he makes contact just 32% of the time compared to league average around 60%. If he can put it all together, the tools are there though: 30-30 upside, elite speed, cannon arm in center. Get the K rate to the high 20s and Houston has their center fielder.
Either of these players could open the season on the Astros’ roster. The prospects in the next tier all have a little something to show before joining them.
Knocking On the Door
AJ Blubaugh
Blubaugh is a personal favorite of mine in the Astros system, and one of my sleeper picks for the upcoming season. Some of you may remember him from throwing 32 innings to the tune of a 1.69 ERA, winning three games in the process. He has three plus pitches in his arsenal (five total), including a 95-mph fastball. What I love about him though? His feel for pitching. Between Triple-A and the majors, Blubaugh ditched a cutter that was getting hit hard, leaned more on his slider, and turned his changeup into a surefire out pitch (36.7% K rate, literally unhittable). That adaptability is what separates back-end guys who stick from those who don’t. The one thing I want to see? Better fastball location. Right now, hitters get under it too often and can lay off it too frequently, leading to it being a weakness (116 wRC+ against his four-seamer). If he can break through this wall, he can become a legitimate mid-rotation arm Houston can rely on.
Ethan Pecko
Blubaugh was a favorite, Pecko is THE favorite. The 2024 MiLB Pitcher of the Year was drafted out of Towson University in the sixth round in 2023, and he’s made a quick climb through the ranks, debuting in Triple-A as a 22-year-old this past season. In the PCL, an elevated offensive environment where the Astros’ Triple-A team plays, he casually put up a 3.09 ERA. Don’t like ERA? His K% was 31.8%, he had an xWOBA of .272, his barrel percentage was a microscopic 2.3%, and his xBART was .001%! OK that last one is a made-up stat, but as a 22-year-old, pitching like that in a tough environment bodes well for him in the big leagues. The 2026 goal? Repeat his 2025 in Triple-A while cutting down his walk rate. A 3.09 BB/9 is above the major league average for starters (2.9 BB/9). Do both, and I anticipate a callup sometime this season.
Miguel Ullola
Ullola is the most tantalizing of the pitchers in this tier. It’s not every day you have a pitcher with 10+ K/9 at every level of the minors, and he put up a quality ERA in Triple-A this past season (3.88). He throws five pitches, three of which are plus. He’s even managed to consistently keep his HR/9 down over Double-A and Triple-A. And the Astros like him enough to have added him to the 40-man roster, protecting him from the Rule 5 draft. So why isn’t he higher on my list? His walk rate could politely be described as obscene, 15.9% for 2025, and it hasn’t dropped below 13% for his career. His K% also dropped from a sterling 31.1% in Double-A to 26.6% in Triple-A. It’s almost impressive that despite these walk rates, he’s been a good pitcher moving up through the system. What he has to do for a 2026 callup is obvious: cut his walk rate. He showed that improvement from High-A to Double-A, so potentially he can do the same with more time in Triple-A. With the raw stuff he has, if the command improves even moderately, he’ll be a high-caliber reliever with the potential for more.
The pitchers address question marks in the rotation. The bats inject youth into an aging lineup. Part 2 covers the prospects still climbing.
