I’m sure the non-Astros fans reading this are playing a tune on the world’s smallest violin right now. After all, the Astros are among the most hated teams in the league, joined by lovable (gross) compatriots like the Dodgers or Yankees. Part of it is because of the extraordinary success they’ve had over the past nearly a decade. But look at today’s MLB landscape: the Mariners just made the ALCS, the Blue Jays have a young lineup mashing, and the Dodgers are a Death Star. Against that backdrop, Houston looks stagnant with more and more cracks showing in what they’ve built.
Core Running Out of Time
An optimist sees one of the game’s best young shortstops in Jeremy Peña. An electric hitter in Yordan Álvarez, who slashed .308/.392/.567 when healthy. A future Hall of Famer in José Altuve, still providing above-average bats at second base. Cam Smith made a seamless defensive transition to right field. Isaac Paredes’ swing seems tailor-made for Daikin Park’s Crawford Boxes. A pessimist sees the same roster as old and injury-prone. Álvarez can’t stay healthy, missing 27 games in 2022, 48 in 2023, 15 in 2024, and 48 in 2025. Altuve is 35 and declining. His wOBA dropped from .397 in 2022 to .331 in 2025, while his fWAR fell from 6.9 to 2.1. They’d question whether Peña’s breakout (.304/.363/.477, 20-20 pace, Gold Glove-caliber defense) is sustainable. Cam Smith hit the rookie wall hard (116 wRC+ in the first half, 41 in the second half).
If the lineup has questions, the rotation is a full-blown crisis. After Hunter Brown (third in Cy Young Award voting), the opening day rotation is projected to be Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Jason Alexander, and Spencer Arrighetti. Or, more accurately: players who were good an elbow surgery or two ago. There is potential for midseason reinforcements. Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and Brandon Walter are all recovering from Tommy John surgery and could bolster the rotation when they return in 2026. The bullpen, at least, is solid. Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu anchor what should be a strength.
Free agency rumors have Houston targeting free agent pitchers, but given the roster’s age, promoting from within makes more sense.
Untapped Depth
Compared to the glory days of the Astros farm system, when it was loaded with prospects like Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and George Springer, it’s now typically ranked around 29th-30th. Prospect lists rarely feature Astros prospects these days, save for the occasional exception like Cam Smith.
What the farm system does still have, however, is great development that churns out MLB-caliber pitchers. The injury-ravaged rotation forced Houston to callup AJ Blubaugh in 2025, and he showed the development system still works, putting up a 1.69 ERA in 32 IP. While used in more of a relief role in his initial callup, Blubaugh has starter-level pitches with strikeout ability, needing to clean up his command. Miguel Ullola was just called up to the 40-man roster and has similar raw ability. His 30% CSW in the minors is elite, and similar to Blubaugh, his command needs refinement to take the next step. Ethan Pecko, currently in Triple-A, has the most immediate upside given that he combines better command with a fastball and developing secondaries that could slot in as a potential number three starter. The sleeper is Alonzo Tredwell, a recent second-round pick in Double-A who has strikeout stuff with better command than Ullola or Blubaugh, tearing through every level so far. Better to let them develop in primetime rather than run back the current retreads and waste the aging core’s limited time.
Looming Lockout
The CBA expires after 2026. Statements by both sides have confirmed that a lockout is all but inevitable, threatening a shortened or cancelled 2027 season. This could galvanize Houston into proactively signing reinforcements to bolster the rotation and lineup, aggressively promoting young players to get them experience in the majors in case of an extended lockout. It could also make them stand pat, content to watch their already small window of contention winnow into nothing as their rivals continue to innovate.
This leaves the Astros at a crossroads. And if they choose poorly, it won’t be Astros haters playing the world’s smallest violin. It’ll be their own fans.
